Sun Belt football standings and title game race, 2026
The Sun Belt Championship Game matches the two division winners.
13 of 14 teams can still win their division.
- In if they win out: Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech
- Alive but need help: James Madison, App State, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Georgia State, South Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas State, Troy, Southern Miss and UL Monroe
- Out of the race: Old Dominion
25 conference games left. Based on every possible result of those games.
Standings and projected finish
Ordered by current conference record, with tiebreakers. How ties are broken
East Division
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Projected finish | Title game chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia Southern4-4 overall · Projected finish: 2nd (avg 2.4) | 3-1 | 4-4 | 2ndavg 2.4 · 5.2-2.8 conf | 15% |
| 2 | James MadisonWhat it takes: Win its last game and several results to go its way.8-2 overall · Projected finish: 1st (avg 1.3) | 5-2 | 8-2 | 1stavg 1.3 · 5.9-2.1 conf | 76% |
| 3 | App StatePlaced by tiebreaker: head-to-head result between the tied teams.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 3rd (avg 3.6) | 2-2 | 5-3 | 3rdavg 3.6 · 4.3-3.7 conf | 7% |
| 4 | Coastal CarolinaPlaced by tiebreaker: head-to-head result between the tied teams.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 5th (avg 4.6) | 2-2 | 3-5 | 5thavg 4.6 · 3.6-4.4 conf | 2% |
| 5 | MarshallWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 4th (avg 4.3) | 2-2 | 5-3 | 4thavg 4.3 · 3.9-4.1 conf | <1% |
| 6 | Georgia StateWhat it takes: Win out, then would need a tiebreaker.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 6th (avg 5.2) | 1-3 | 4-4 | 6thavg 5.2 · 2.9-5.1 conf | <1% |
| 7 | Old Dominion2-7 overall · Projected finish: 7th (avg 6.6) | 1-5 | 2-7 | 7thavg 6.6 · 1.9-6.1 conf | 0% |
West Division
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Projected finish | Title game chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisiana Tech6-2 overall · Projected finish: 1st (avg 1.1) | 4-0 | 6-2 | 1stavg 1.1 · 7.1-0.9 conf | 95% |
| 2 | South AlabamaPlaced by tiebreaker: overall divisional winning percentage.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 3rd (avg 3.8) | 2-2 | 4-4 | 3rdavg 3.8 · 4.0-4.0 conf | <1% |
| 3 | LouisianaPlaced by tiebreaker: overall divisional winning percentage.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 2nd (avg 2.7) | 2-2 | 5-3 | 2ndavg 2.7 · 4.8-3.2 conf | 1% |
| 4 | Arkansas StateTied with Troy. The next step (Composite of computer rankings (SportSource, KPI, Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 4th (avg 4.1) | 2-2 | 4-4 | 4thavg 4.1 · 4.0-4.0 conf | 2% |
| 5 | TroyWhat it takes: Win out, plus a loss by Louisiana and 2 losses by Louisiana Tech.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 5th (avg 4.6) | 2-2 | 4-4 | 5thavg 4.6 · 3.5-4.5 conf | 1% |
| 6 | Southern MissWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-6 overall · Projected finish: 6th (avg 5.3) | 2-3 | 3-6 | 6thavg 5.3 · 3.0-5.0 conf | <1% |
| 7 | UL MonroeWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.1-7 overall · Projected finish: 7th (avg 6.5) | 1-3 | 1-7 | 7thavg 6.5 · 2.0-6.0 conf | <1% |
“In if they win out” means winning every remaining conference game guarantees a spot on record alone. “What it takes” is the simplest set of other results that, along with winning out, guarantees a spot without needing a tiebreaker. Projected finish and title game chance (winning the division) are based on the numbers: we played out the rest of the season 10,000 times, with each game's win chance from the Receipts Rankings model, including home field. Projected finish ranks teams by their average place in the division across those seasons (1st has the best average).
How the standings moved, week by week
Each team's place in its division after each week with Sun Belt games.
East Division
West Division
Remaining conference games
Strength of schedule here is the combined current record of the conference opponents each team still plays. 1 is the toughest stretch.
| Team | Still to play | Strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern |
| 1Opponents 19-13 |
| Georgia State |
| 2Opponents 19-13 |
| UL Monroe |
| 3Opponents 19-13 |
| Troy |
| 4Opponents 18-14 |
| Coastal Carolina |
| 5Opponents 19-16 |
| South Alabama |
| 6Opponents 17-16 |
| Southern Miss |
| 7Opponents 12-13 |
| Louisiana Tech |
| 8Opponents 15-18 |
| App State |
| 9Opponents 14-18 |
| Arkansas State |
| 10Opponents 14-18 |
| Marshall |
| 11Opponents 14-18 |
| James Madison |
| 12Opponents 3-5 |
| Louisiana |
| 13Opponents 12-20 |
| Old Dominion |
| 14Opponents 6-11 |
How ties are broken
We use the official Sun Belt procedure (Sun Belt Football Tie-Breaking Procedures (sunbeltsports.org)).
Two teams tied
- Head-to-head result between the tied teams
- Overall divisional winning percentage
- Record vs. the next-highest team in the division standings, continuing down
- Win percentage vs. common non-divisional conference opponents
- Highest-ranked tied team in the latest CFP rankings that wins its final conference game
- Composite of computer rankings (SportSource, KPI, Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR)
- Overall winning percentage vs. FBS teams
- Coin toss
Three or more teams tied
- Record in games among the tied teams
- Overall divisional winning percentage
- Record vs. the next-highest team in the division standings, continuing down
- Win percentage vs. common non-divisional conference opponents
- Highest-ranked tied team in the latest CFP rankings that wins its final conference game
- Composite of computer rankings (SportSource, KPI, Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR)
- Overall winning percentage vs. FBS teams
- Coin toss
Once a step lifts a team out of a tie, it takes the spot and the remaining teams start over. When a group of common opponents is tied in the standings, we use each team's record against that group as a whole.
CFP rankings used: the latest committee top 25 (released week 10). It updates when a new ranking comes out. Steps that depend on a final game wait until that game is played.
The Sun Belt posts its procedure on a page first published in 2018 and kept current with its divisions. When no ranked tied team wins its finale, it uses a composite of computer rankings we don't have, so we stop there.
How the projections work
Each remaining game's win chance comes from the gap between the two teams' Receipts Rankings scores (through 2026-11-01), plus home field. Both were fit to every FBS game played after late October in the 2021–2025 seasons. Ties our data can't break are settled at random in the simulations.