MAC football standings and title game race, 2026
The MAC Championship Game matches the top 2 teams in the conference standings.
11 of 13 teams can still reach the title game.
- In if they win out: Ohio
- Alive but need help: Buffalo, Toledo, Western Michigan, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Massachusetts and Kent State
- Out of the race: Sacramento State and Akron
18 conference games left. Based on every possible result of those games.
Standings and projected finish
Ordered by current conference record, with tiebreakers. How ties are broken
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Projected finish | Title game chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio7-2 overall · Projected finish: 1st (avg 2.1) | 5-0 | 7-2 | 1stavg 2.1 · 6.8-1.2 conf | 69% |
| 2 | BuffaloTied with Toledo, Western Michigan. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out, plus a loss by Toledo and a loss by Western Michigan.6-3 overall · Projected finish: 4th (avg 3.1) | 4-1 | 6-3 | 4thavg 3.1 · 5.9-2.1 conf | 36% |
| 3 | ToledoPlaced by tiebreaker: head-to-head result between the tied teams.What it takes: Win out, plus a loss by Buffalo and a loss by Ohio.7-2 overall · Projected finish: 2nd (avg 2.9) | 4-1 | 7-2 | 2ndavg 2.9 · 6.1-1.9 conf | 44% |
| 4 | Western MichiganWhat it takes: Win out, plus a loss by Buffalo and a loss by Toledo.6-3 overall · Projected finish: 3rd (avg 2.9) | 4-1 | 6-3 | 3rdavg 2.9 · 6.1-1.9 conf | 45% |
| 5 | Miami (OH)What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-4 overall · Projected finish: 5th (avg 5.5) | 3-2 | 5-4 | 5thavg 5.5 · 4.6-3.4 conf | 5% |
| 6 | Eastern MichiganWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-6 overall · Projected finish: 6th (avg 7.2) | 3-3 | 4-6 | 6thavg 7.2 · 3.8-4.2 conf | <1% |
| 7 | Ball StateTied with Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Kent State, Massachusetts. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-6 overall · Projected finish: 9th (avg 8.6) | 2-3 | 3-6 | 9thavg 8.6 · 3.2-4.8 conf | <1% |
| 8 | Bowling GreenTied with Central Michigan, Kent State, Massachusetts. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.2-7 overall · Projected finish: 10th (avg 8.7) | 2-3 | 2-7 | 10thavg 8.7 · 3.2-4.8 conf | <1% |
| 9 | Central MichiganTied with Kent State, Massachusetts. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-5 overall · Projected finish: 8th (avg 8.2) | 2-3 | 4-5 | 8thavg 8.2 · 3.5-4.5 conf | <1% |
| 10 | MassachusettsPlaced by tiebreaker: win percentage vs. all common opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-4 overall · Projected finish: 7th (avg 8.1) | 2-3 | 5-4 | 7thavg 8.1 · 3.5-4.5 conf | <1% |
| 11 | Kent StateWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-6 overall · Projected finish: 11th (avg 9.1) | 2-3 | 3-6 | 11thavg 9.1 · 3.1-4.9 conf | <1% |
| 12 | Sacramento State2-8 overall · Projected finish: 12th (avg 12.0) | 1-6 | 2-8 | 12thavg 12.0 · 1.3-6.7 conf | 0% |
| 13 | Akron1-8 overall · Projected finish: 13th (avg 12.6) | 0-5 | 1-8 | 13thavg 12.6 · 0.9-7.1 conf | 0% |
“In if they win out” means winning every remaining conference game guarantees a spot on record alone. “What it takes” is the simplest set of other results that, along with winning out, guarantees a spot without needing a tiebreaker. Projected finish and title game chance are based on the numbers: we played out the rest of the season 10,000 times, with each game's win chance from the Receipts Rankings model, including home field. Projected finish ranks teams by their average place across those seasons (1st has the best average).
How the standings moved, week by week
Each team's conference place after each week with MAC games.
Remaining conference games
Strength of schedule here is the combined current record of the conference opponents each team still plays. 1 is the toughest stretch.
| Team | Still to play | Strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Akron |
| 1Opponents 17-10 |
| Ball State |
| 2Opponents 17-10 |
| Miami (OH) |
| 3Opponents 16-11 |
| Bowling Green |
| 4Opponents 15-12 |
| Ohio |
| 5Opponents 15-12 |
| Toledo |
| 6Opponents 14-13 |
| Eastern Michigan |
| 7Opponents 9-9 |
| Sacramento State |
| 8Opponents 4-5 |
| Central Michigan |
| 9Opponents 11-17 |
| Kent State |
| 10Opponents 11-17 |
| Massachusetts |
| 11Opponents 10-17 |
| Western Michigan |
| 12Opponents 10-18 |
| Buffalo |
| 13Opponents 8-19 |
How ties are broken
We use the official MAC procedure (MAC Football Championship Tiebreaker (getsomemaction.com)).
Two teams tied
- Head-to-head result between the tied teams
- Win percentage vs. all common opponents
- SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score
- Win percentage vs. common opponents in order of finish
- Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
- Draw by the Commissioner
Three or more teams tied
- Record in games among the tied teams if all played each other; otherwise a team that beat all others advances
- Win percentage vs. all common opponents
- SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score
- Win percentage vs. common opponents in order of finish
- Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
- Draw by the Commissioner
Once a step lifts a team out of a tie, it takes the spot and the remaining teams start over. When a group of common opponents is tied in the standings, we use each team's record against that group as a whole.
Step 3 is the SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score, which isn't public, so we stop there.
How the projections work
Each remaining game's win chance comes from the gap between the two teams' Receipts Rankings scores (through 2026-11-01), plus home field. Both were fit to every FBS game played after late October in the 2021–2025 seasons. Ties our data can't break are settled at random in the simulations.