Conference USA football standings and title game race, 2026
The Conference USA Championship Game matches the top 2 teams in the conference standings.
10 of 10 teams can still reach the title game.
- In if they win out: Jacksonville State and Liberty
- Alive but need help: Delaware, Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State, Florida International and Sam Houston
20 conference games left. Based on every possible result of those games.
Standings and projected finish
Ordered by current conference record, with tiebreakers. How ties are broken
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Projected finish | Title game chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville StateTied with Liberty. The next step (Average computer ranking (Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.6-2 overall · Projected finish: 2nd (avg 1.6) | 4-0 | 6-2 | 2ndavg 1.6 · 7.3-0.7 conf | 99% |
| 2 | Liberty7-1 overall · Projected finish: 1st (avg 1.4) | 4-0 | 7-1 | 1stavg 1.4 · 7.6-0.4 conf | 98% |
| 3 | DelawareTied with Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky. The next step (Average computer ranking (Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 9th (avg 8.4) | 2-2 | 4-4 | 9thavg 8.4 · 2.2-5.8 conf | <1% |
| 4 | Middle TennesseeTied with Missouri State, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky. The next step (Average computer ranking (Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 5th (avg 5.2) | 2-2 | 4-4 | 5thavg 5.2 · 3.8-4.2 conf | 1% |
| 5 | Missouri StateTied with New Mexico State, Western Kentucky. The next step (Average computer ranking (Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 8th (avg 6.6) | 2-2 | 3-5 | 8thavg 6.6 · 3.1-4.9 conf | <1% |
| 6 | New Mexico StatePlaced by tiebreaker: head-to-head result between the tied teams.What it takes: Win out, plus 2 losses by Liberty and a loss by Western Kentucky.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 4th (avg 5.2) | 2-2 | 3-5 | 4thavg 5.2 · 3.9-4.1 conf | 1% |
| 7 | Western KentuckyWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 7th (avg 6.3) | 2-2 | 3-5 | 7thavg 6.3 · 3.3-4.7 conf | <1% |
| 8 | Kennesaw StatePlaced by tiebreaker: win percentage vs. common conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.2-6 overall · Projected finish: 6th (avg 6.0) | 1-3 | 2-6 | 6thavg 6.0 · 3.5-4.5 conf | <1% |
| 9 | Florida InternationalWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 3rd (avg 5.1) | 1-3 | 3-5 | 3rdavg 5.1 · 3.9-4.1 conf | <1% |
| 10 | Sam HoustonWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.1-7 overall · Projected finish: 10th (avg 9.2) | 0-4 | 1-7 | 10thavg 9.2 · 1.4-6.6 conf | <1% |
“In if they win out” means winning every remaining conference game guarantees a spot on record alone. “What it takes” is the simplest set of other results that, along with winning out, guarantees a spot without needing a tiebreaker. Projected finish and title game chance are based on the numbers: we played out the rest of the season 10,000 times, with each game's win chance from the Receipts Rankings model, including home field. Projected finish ranks teams by their average place across those seasons (1st has the best average).
How the standings moved, week by week
Each team's conference place after each week with Conference USA games.
Remaining conference games
Strength of schedule here is the combined current record of the conference opponents each team still plays. 1 is the toughest stretch.
| Team | Still to play | Strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri State |
| 1Opponents 19-13 |
| Western Kentucky |
| 2Opponents 19-13 |
| New Mexico State |
| 3Opponents 18-14 |
| Sam Houston |
| 4Opponents 15-17 |
| Delaware |
| 5Opponents 14-18 |
| Middle Tennessee |
| 6Opponents 14-18 |
| Liberty |
| 7Opponents 13-19 |
| Jacksonville State |
| 8Opponents 11-21 |
| Kennesaw State |
| 9Opponents 11-21 |
| Florida International |
| 10Opponents 10-22 |
How ties are broken
We use the official Conference USA procedure (CUSA Football Championship Game Tiebreaker Policy (conferenceusa.com)).
Two teams tied
- Head-to-head result between the tied teams
- Win percentage vs. common conference opponents
- Record vs. the common opponent(s) with the best conference record, proceeding down
- Average computer ranking (Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN SOR, KPI)
- Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents
- Coin toss
Three or more teams tied
- Record in games among the tied teams; if not all played, a team that beat all others advances
- Win percentage vs. common conference opponents
- Record vs. the common opponent(s) with the best conference record, proceeding down
- Average computer ranking (Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN SOR, KPI)
- Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents
- Coin toss
Once a step lifts a team out of a tie, it takes the spot and the remaining teams start over. When a group of common opponents is tied in the standings, we use each team's record against that group as a whole.
Step 4 is an average of computer rankings we don't have, so we stop there. The policy document is dated 2024 and is the version the conference currently links.
How the projections work
Each remaining game's win chance comes from the gap between the two teams' Receipts Rankings scores (through 2026-11-01), plus home field. Both were fit to every FBS game played after late October in the 2021–2025 seasons. Ties our data can't break are settled at random in the simulations.