ACC football standings and title game race, 2026
The ACC Championship Game matches the top 2 teams in the conference standings.
15 of 17 teams can still reach the title game.
- In if they win out: Miami and Wake Forest
- Alive but need help: Clemson, Louisville, SMU, Duke, Virginia Tech, Boston College, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, NC State, California, Stanford, Virginia and Syracuse
- Out of the race: Florida State and Georgia Tech
27 conference games left. Based on every possible result of those games.
Standings and projected finish
Ordered by current conference record, with tiebreakers. How ties are broken
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Projected finish | Title game chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami8-0 overall · Projected finish: 1st (avg 1.1) | 6-0 | 8-0 | 1stavg 1.1 · 8.5-0.5 conf | 98% |
| 2 | Wake Forest7-1 overall · Projected finish: 2nd (avg 2.5) | 5-1 | 7-1 | 2ndavg 2.5 · 7.2-1.8 conf | 71% |
| 3 | ClemsonTied with Louisville, SMU. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 5th (avg 5.8) | 3-2 | 5-3 | 5thavg 5.8 · 4.9-3.1 conf | 6% |
| 4 | LouisvillePlaced by tiebreaker: head-to-head result between the tied teams.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 3rd (avg 4.8) | 4-2 | 5-3 | 3rdavg 4.8 · 5.9-3.1 conf | 6% |
| 5 | SMUWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.6-2 overall · Projected finish: 4th (avg 5.3) | 4-2 | 6-2 | 4thavg 5.3 · 5.7-3.3 conf | 12% |
| 6 | DukeTied with Virginia Tech. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.6-2 overall · Projected finish: 8th (avg 7.7) | 3-2 | 6-2 | 8thavg 7.7 · 4.8-4.2 conf | 3% |
| 7 | Virginia TechWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.6-2 overall · Projected finish: 6th (avg 6.8) | 3-2 | 6-2 | 6thavg 6.8 · 5.1-3.9 conf | 3% |
| 8 | Boston CollegeTied with North Carolina. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 10th (avg 11.3) | 2-3 | 4-4 | 10thavg 11.3 · 3.1-4.9 conf | <1% |
| 9 | North CarolinaPlaced by tiebreaker: head-to-head result between the tied teams.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 9th (avg 7.9) | 2-3 | 4-4 | 9thavg 7.9 · 4.0-4.0 conf | <1% |
| 10 | PittsburghWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.6-3 overall · Projected finish: 7th (avg 7.3) | 3-3 | 6-3 | 7thavg 7.3 · 5.0-4.0 conf | 1% |
| 11 | NC StateWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 13th (avg 12.6) | 2-3 | 4-4 | 13thavg 12.6 · 3.3-5.7 conf | <1% |
| 12 | CaliforniaTied with Florida State, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-6 overall · Projected finish: 16th (avg 13.5) | 2-4 | 3-6 | 16thavg 13.5 · 3.0-6.0 conf | <1% |
| 13 | Florida StateTied with Georgia Tech, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 14th (avg 12.7) | 1-4 | 3-5 | 14thavg 12.7 · 2.4-5.6 conf | 0% |
| 14 | Georgia TechTied with Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.2-6 overall · Projected finish: 17th (avg 15.9) | 1-4 | 2-6 | 17thavg 15.9 · 1.4-6.6 conf | 0% |
| 15 | StanfordTied with Syracuse, Virginia. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-5 overall · Projected finish: 15th (avg 13.3) | 2-4 | 4-5 | 15thavg 13.3 · 3.0-6.0 conf | <1% |
| 16 | VirginiaPlaced by tiebreaker: head-to-head result between the tied teams.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-5 overall · Projected finish: 12th (avg 12.5) | 2-4 | 4-5 | 12thavg 12.5 · 3.3-5.7 conf | <1% |
| 17 | SyracuseWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 11th (avg 12.0) | 2-4 | 4-4 | 11thavg 12.0 · 3.5-5.5 conf | <1% |
“In if they win out” means winning every remaining conference game guarantees a spot on record alone. “What it takes” is the simplest set of other results that, along with winning out, guarantees a spot without needing a tiebreaker. Projected finish and title game chance are based on the numbers: we played out the rest of the season 10,000 times, with each game's win chance from the Receipts Rankings model, including home field. Projected finish ranks teams by their average place across those seasons (1st has the best average).
How the standings moved, week by week
Each team's conference place after each week with ACC games.
Remaining conference games
Strength of schedule here is the combined current record of the conference opponents each team still plays. 1 is the toughest stretch.
| Team | Still to play | Strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Duke |
| 1Opponents 24-8 |
| Georgia Tech |
| 2Opponents 17-7 |
| SMU |
| 3Opponents 17-8 |
| Miami |
| 4Opponents 16-8 |
| Virginia Tech | 5Opponents 22-12 | |
| Boston College |
| 6Opponents 15-9 |
| Stanford |
| 7Opponents 15-10 |
| Wake Forest |
| 8Opponents 14-10 |
| Florida State |
| 9Opponents 14-11 |
| Syracuse |
| 10Opponents 13-11 |
| NC State |
| 11Opponents 17-15 |
| North Carolina |
| 12Opponents 13-12 |
| Virginia |
| 13Opponents 13-12 |
| California |
| 14Opponents 14-13 |
| Clemson |
| 15Opponents 12-12 |
| Louisville |
| 16Opponents 12-13 |
| Pittsburgh |
| 17Opponents 11-14 |
How ties are broken
We use the official ACC procedure (ACC Football Tiebreaker Policy, as amended July 2026 (theacc.com)).
Two teams tied
- Head-to-head result between the tied teams
- SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking
- Draw by the Commissioner
Three or more teams tied
- Record in games among the tied teams if all played each other; otherwise a team that beat all others advances and one that lost to all drops out
- SportSource Analytics Team Success Ranking
- Draw by the Commissioner
Once a step lifts a team out of a tie, it takes the spot and the remaining teams start over. When a group of common opponents is tied in the standings, we use each team's record against that group as a whole.
After head-to-head, the ACC goes straight to SportSource's Team Success Ranking, which isn't public, so many ACC ties can't be settled here.
In 2026 five ACC teams play eight conference games and the rest play nine. Following ACC rules, a team with a different number of games counts as tied with the leader if it has the same wins or the same losses. Our exact math compares win percentages, so it can miss some of those ties.
How the projections work
Each remaining game's win chance comes from the gap between the two teams' Receipts Rankings scores (through 2026-11-01), plus home field. Both were fit to every FBS game played after late October in the 2021–2025 seasons. Ties our data can't break are settled at random in the simulations.