American football standings and title game race, 2026
The American Championship Game matches the top 2 teams in the conference standings.
14 of 14 teams can still reach the title game.
- In if they win out: North Texas
- Alive but need help: Memphis, UTSA, Army, Florida Atlantic, East Carolina, South Florida, Tulane, UAB, Charlotte, Temple, Tulsa, Navy and Rice
26 conference games left. Based on every possible result of those games.
Standings and projected finish
Ordered by current conference record, with tiebreakers. How ties are broken
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Projected finish | Title game chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Texas6-2 overall · Projected finish: 1st (avg 1.9) | 4-0 | 6-2 | 1stavg 1.9 · 6.9-1.1 conf | 76% |
| 2 | MemphisTied with UTSA. The next step (Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource TR116, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out, plus a loss by UTSA.7-2 overall · Projected finish: 2nd (avg 2.9) | 4-1 | 7-2 | 2ndavg 2.9 · 6.1-1.9 conf | 48% |
| 3 | UTSAWhat it takes: Win out, plus a loss by Memphis.7-2 overall · Projected finish: 3rd (avg 2.9) | 4-1 | 7-2 | 3rdavg 2.9 · 6.0-2.0 conf | 45% |
| 4 | ArmyWhat it takes: Win out, plus a loss by Memphis and a loss by UTSA.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 4th (avg 3.8) | 4-2 | 5-3 | 4thavg 3.8 · 6.1-2.9 conf | 24% |
| 5 | Florida AtlanticWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.6-3 overall · Projected finish: 6th (avg 6.8) | 3-2 | 6-3 | 6thavg 6.8 · 4.3-3.7 conf | 2% |
| 6 | East CarolinaTied with South Florida, Tulane, UAB. The next step (Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource TR116, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 7th (avg 7.7) | 2-2 | 4-4 | 7thavg 7.7 · 3.9-4.1 conf | 1% |
| 7 | South FloridaTied with Tulane, UAB. The next step (Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource TR116, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.6-2 overall · Projected finish: 5th (avg 6.4) | 2-2 | 6-2 | 5thavg 6.4 · 4.4-3.6 conf | 4% |
| 8 | TulaneTied with UAB. The next step (Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource TR116, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 8th (avg 8.1) | 2-2 | 4-4 | 8thavg 8.1 · 3.7-4.3 conf | 1% |
| 9 | UABWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 9th (avg 8.3) | 2-2 | 4-4 | 9thavg 8.3 · 3.7-4.3 conf | 1% |
| 10 | CharlotteTied with Temple, Tulsa. The next step (Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource TR116, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.1-7 overall · Projected finish: 13th (avg 11.6) | 1-3 | 1-7 | 13thavg 11.6 · 2.1-5.9 conf | <1% |
| 11 | TempleTied with Tulsa. The next step (Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource TR116, ESPN SOR, KPI)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.2-6 overall · Projected finish: 11th (avg 10.9) | 1-3 | 2-6 | 11thavg 10.9 · 2.6-5.4 conf | <1% |
| 12 | TulsaWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 10th (avg 9.3) | 1-3 | 4-4 | 10thavg 9.3 · 3.2-4.8 conf | <1% |
| 13 | NavyWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.2-6 overall · Projected finish: 12th (avg 11.2) | 1-4 | 2-6 | 12thavg 11.2 · 2.9-6.1 conf | <1% |
| 14 | RiceWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.1-7 overall · Projected finish: 14th (avg 13.2) | 0-4 | 1-7 | 14thavg 13.2 · 1.1-6.9 conf | <1% |
“In if they win out” means winning every remaining conference game guarantees a spot on record alone. “What it takes” is the simplest set of other results that, along with winning out, guarantees a spot without needing a tiebreaker. Projected finish and title game chance are based on the numbers: we played out the rest of the season 10,000 times, with each game's win chance from the Receipts Rankings model, including home field. Projected finish ranks teams by their average place across those seasons (1st has the best average).
How the standings moved, week by week
Each team's conference place after each week with American games.
Remaining conference games
Strength of schedule here is the combined current record of the conference opponents each team still plays. 1 is the toughest stretch.
| Team | Still to play | Strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|
| South Florida |
| 1Opponents 21-13 |
| Florida Atlantic |
| 2Opponents 14-10 |
| UTSA |
| 3Opponents 14-10 |
| East Carolina |
| 4Opponents 18-15 |
| Rice |
| 5Opponents 17-15 |
| Tulane |
| 6Opponents 17-15 |
| Tulsa |
| 7Opponents 18-16 |
| North Texas | 8Opponents 16-17 | |
| UAB |
| 9Opponents 16-17 |
| Navy | 10Opponents 15-18 | |
| Charlotte |
| 11Opponents 14-18 |
| Temple | 12Opponents 14-19 | |
| Memphis |
| 13Opponents 10-14 |
| Army |
| 14Opponents 7-17 |
How ties are broken
We use the official American procedure (American Conference 2026 Football Tiebreakers (theamerican.org)).
Two teams tied
- Head-to-head result between the tied teams
- Highest-ranked tied team in the latest CFP rankings that doesn't lose its final conference game
- Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource TR116, ESPN SOR, KPI)
- Win percentage vs. all common conference opponents
- Overall winning percentage
- Coin toss
Three or more teams tied
- Record in games among the tied teams; if not all played, a team that beat all others advances
- Highest-ranked tied team in the latest CFP rankings that doesn't lose its final conference game
- Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource TR116, ESPN SOR, KPI)
- Win percentage vs. all common conference opponents
- Overall winning percentage
- Coin toss
Once a step lifts a team out of a tie, it takes the spot and the remaining teams start over. When a group of common opponents is tied in the standings, we use each team's record against that group as a whole.
CFP rankings used: the latest committee top 25 (released week 10). It updates when a new ranking comes out. Steps that depend on a final game wait until that game is played.
When no ranked tied team wins its finale, The American uses a composite of computer rankings we don't have, so we stop there.
How the projections work
Each remaining game's win chance comes from the gap between the two teams' Receipts Rankings scores (through 2026-11-01), plus home field. Both were fit to every FBS game played after late October in the 2021–2025 seasons. Ties our data can't break are settled at random in the simulations.