Big Ten football standings and title game race, 2026
The Big Ten Championship Game matches the top 2 teams in the conference standings.
16 of 18 teams can still reach the title game.
- In if they win out: UCLA
- Alive but need help: Indiana, Ohio State, USC, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Washington, Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State and Rutgers
- Out of the race: Michigan State and Maryland
35 conference games left. Based on every possible result of those games.
Standings and projected finish
Ordered by current conference record, with tiebreakers. How ties are broken
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Projected finish | Title game chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA8-0 overall · Projected finish: 1st (avg 1.9) | 5-0 | 8-0 | 1stavg 1.9 · 7.9-1.1 conf | 77% |
| 2 | IndianaWhat it takes: Win out, plus a loss by Ohio State.8-1 overall · Projected finish: 2nd (avg 2.7) | 5-1 | 8-1 | 2ndavg 2.7 · 7.2-1.8 conf | 54% |
| 3 | Ohio StateWhat it takes: Win out, plus a loss by Indiana.6-2 overall · Projected finish: 3rd (avg 3.6) | 4-1 | 6-2 | 3rdavg 3.6 · 6.6-2.4 conf | 37% |
| 4 | USCWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.7-2 overall · Projected finish: 4th (avg 5.7) | 4-2 | 7-2 | 4thavg 5.7 · 5.6-3.4 conf | 9% |
| 5 | OregonPlaced by tiebreaker: cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 6th (avg 6.1) | 3-2 | 5-3 | 6thavg 6.1 · 5.5-3.5 conf | 9% |
| 6 | IowaPlaced by tiebreaker: cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.6-2 overall · Projected finish: 7th (avg 7.2) | 3-2 | 6-2 | 7thavg 7.2 · 5.4-3.6 conf | 3% |
| 7 | MinnesotaPlaced by tiebreaker: cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 9th (avg 9.6) | 3-2 | 5-3 | 9thavg 9.6 · 4.2-4.8 conf | 1% |
| 8 | WisconsinPlaced by tiebreaker: cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 5th (avg 5.9) | 3-2 | 5-3 | 5thavg 5.9 · 6.0-3.0 conf | 7% |
| 9 | IllinoisPlaced by tiebreaker: record vs. all common conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 10th (avg 10.6) | 3-2 | 5-3 | 10thavg 10.6 · 4.2-4.8 conf | <1% |
| 10 | NorthwesternWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.6-2 overall · Projected finish: 8th (avg 7.3) | 3-2 | 6-2 | 8thavg 7.3 · 5.3-3.7 conf | 3% |
| 11 | PurduePlaced by tiebreaker: cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 15th (avg 12.5) | 2-3 | 3-5 | 15thavg 12.5 · 3.5-5.5 conf | <1% |
| 12 | WashingtonPlaced by tiebreaker: cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 13th (avg 12.3) | 2-3 | 5-3 | 13thavg 12.3 · 3.6-5.4 conf | <1% |
| 13 | MichiganPlaced by tiebreaker: cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 12th (avg 12.3) | 2-3 | 5-3 | 12thavg 12.3 · 3.5-5.5 conf | <1% |
| 14 | NebraskaWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 11th (avg 10.8) | 2-3 | 5-3 | 11thavg 10.8 · 4.3-4.7 conf | <1% |
| 15 | Penn StatePlaced by tiebreaker: cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 14th (avg 12.4) | 1-4 | 4-4 | 14thavg 12.4 · 3.7-5.3 conf | <1% |
| 16 | RutgersWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.2-6 overall · Projected finish: 17th (avg 16.4) | 1-4 | 2-6 | 17thavg 16.4 · 1.8-7.2 conf | <1% |
| 17 | Michigan StatePlaced by tiebreaker: cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.2-6 overall · Projected finish: 16th (avg 16.3) | 0-5 | 2-6 | 16thavg 16.3 · 1.6-7.4 conf | 0% |
| 18 | Maryland2-6 overall · Projected finish: 18th (avg 17.4) | 0-5 | 2-6 | 18thavg 17.4 · 0.9-8.1 conf | 0% |
“In if they win out” means winning every remaining conference game guarantees a spot on record alone. “What it takes” is the simplest set of other results that, along with winning out, guarantees a spot without needing a tiebreaker. Projected finish and title game chance are based on the numbers: we played out the rest of the season 10,000 times, with each game's win chance from the Receipts Rankings model, including home field. Projected finish ranks teams by their average place across those seasons (1st has the best average).
How the standings moved, week by week
Each team's conference place after each week with Big Ten games.
Remaining conference games
Strength of schedule here is the combined current record of the conference opponents each team still plays. 1 is the toughest stretch.
| Team | Still to play | Strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Illinois |
| 1Opponents 25-7 |
| USC | 2Opponents 18-7 | |
| Minnesota |
| 3Opponents 23-9 |
| Northwestern |
| 4Opponents 22-10 |
| UCLA | 5Opponents 22-11 | |
| Michigan |
| 6Opponents 21-11 |
| Ohio State |
| 7Opponents 21-11 |
| Purdue | 8Opponents 21-12 | |
| Indiana |
| 9Opponents 15-10 |
| Iowa |
| 10Opponents 19-13 |
| Nebraska |
| 11Opponents 19-13 |
| Maryland |
| 12Opponents 19-14 |
| Washington |
| 13Opponents 19-14 |
| Oregon |
| 14Opponents 18-14 |
| Michigan State |
| 15Opponents 17-15 |
| Rutgers |
| 16Opponents 16-16 |
| Penn State |
| 17Opponents 14-18 |
| Wisconsin | 18Opponents 12-20 |
How ties are broken
We use the official Big Ten procedure (Full Big Ten Rule, 2026 (bigten.org)).
Two teams tied
- Head-to-head result between the tied teams
- Record vs. all common conference opponents
- Record vs. common opponents in order of finish
- Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents
- SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score
- Random draw
Three or more teams tied
- Record in games among the tied teams; if not all played, a team that beat or lost to all others is removed
- Record vs. all common conference opponents
- Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents
- SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score
- Random draw
Once a step lifts a team out of a tie, it takes the spot and the remaining teams start over. When a group of common opponents is tied in the standings, we use each team's record against that group as a whole.
The SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score isn't public, so we stop before that step.
How the projections work
Each remaining game's win chance comes from the gap between the two teams' Receipts Rankings scores (through 2026-11-01), plus home field. Both were fit to every FBS game played after late October in the 2021–2025 seasons. Ties our data can't break are settled at random in the simulations.