Pac-12 football standings and title game race, 2026
The Pac-12 Championship Game matches the top 2 teams in the conference standings.
7 of 8 teams can still reach the title game.
- In if they win out: Boise State and Oregon State
- Alive but need help: San Diego State, Texas State, Fresno State, Utah State and Colorado State
- Out of the race: Washington State
11 conference games left. Based on every possible result of those games.
Standings and projected finish
Ordered by current conference record, with tiebreakers. How ties are broken
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Projected finish | Title game chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise State7-1 overall · Projected finish: 1st (avg 1.2) | 4-0 | 7-1 | 1stavg 1.2 · 6.5-0.5 conf | 98% |
| 2 | Oregon State5-3 overall · Projected finish: 2nd (avg 2.7) | 3-1 | 5-3 | 2ndavg 2.7 · 4.6-2.4 conf | 56% |
| 3 | San Diego StateWhat it takes: Win out, plus 2 losses by Boise State and 2 losses by Oregon State.4-5 overall · Projected finish: 4th (avg 4.1) | 3-2 | 4-5 | 4thavg 4.1 · 3.6-3.4 conf | 9% |
| 4 | Texas StatePlaced by tiebreaker: combined conference winning percentage of conference opponents.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-4 overall · Projected finish: 5th (avg 4.3) | 2-2 | 4-4 | 5thavg 4.3 · 3.8-3.2 conf | 16% |
| 5 | Fresno StateTied with Utah State. The next step (SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out, plus 2 losses by Oregon State and a loss by San Diego State.5-3 overall · Projected finish: 3rd (avg 3.8) | 2-2 | 5-3 | 3rdavg 3.8 · 4.0-3.0 conf | 15% |
| 6 | Utah StateWhat it takes: Win out, plus a loss by Oregon State and a loss by Texas State.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 6th (avg 5.3) | 2-2 | 3-5 | 6thavg 5.3 · 3.1-3.9 conf | 5% |
| 7 | Colorado StateWhat it takes: Win out, plus 2 losses by Boise State and 2 losses by San Diego State.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 7th (avg 6.7) | 1-3 | 3-5 | 7thavg 6.7 · 1.8-5.2 conf | <1% |
| 8 | Washington State1-8 overall · Projected finish: 8th (avg 7.9) | 0-5 | 1-8 | 8thavg 7.9 · 0.6-6.4 conf | 0% |
“In if they win out” means winning every remaining conference game guarantees a spot on record alone. “What it takes” is the simplest set of other results that, along with winning out, guarantees a spot without needing a tiebreaker. Projected finish and title game chance are based on the numbers: we played out the rest of the season 10,000 times, with each game's win chance from the Receipts Rankings model, including home field. Projected finish ranks teams by their average place across those seasons (1st has the best average).
How the standings moved, week by week
Each team's conference place after each week with Pac-12 games.
Remaining conference games
Strength of schedule here is the combined current record of the conference opponents each team still plays. 1 is the toughest stretch.
| Team | Still to play | Strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego State |
| 1Opponents 10-6 |
| Oregon State |
| 2Opponents 14-10 |
| Utah State |
| 3Opponents 14-11 |
| Colorado State |
| 4Opponents 13-12 |
| Boise State |
| 5Opponents 12-13 |
| Texas State |
| 6Opponents 11-14 |
| Washington State |
| 7Opponents 7-9 |
| Fresno State |
| 8Opponents 10-14 |
How ties are broken
We use the official Pac-12 procedure (Pac-12 2026 football updates and championship tiebreakers (pac-12.com)).
Two teams tied
- Tie for first: head-to-head winner is the No. 1 seed
- Win percentage vs. the next-highest-placed common opponent, proceeding through the standings
- Win percentage vs. all common conference opponents
- Highest CFP ranking on the Tuesday before week 13
- SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score
- Coin toss
Three or more teams tied
- Record in games among the tied teams, only if every tied team played every other
- Winning percentage vs. all common conference opponents
- Record vs. the next-highest-placed common opponent, proceeding through the standings
- Combined conference winning percentage of conference opponents
- SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score
- Coin toss
Once a step lifts a team out of a tie, it takes the spot and the remaining teams start over. When a group of common opponents is tied in the standings, we use each team's record against that group as a whole.
CFP rankings used: the latest committee top 25 (released week 10). It updates when a new ranking comes out. Steps that depend on a final game wait until that game is played.
The week 13 home-and-home flex games don't count in the Pac-12 standings, so they're left out here.
For a two-team tie for second, the Pac-12's published list doesn't include head-to-head, so we don't use it there.
The Pac-12 uses the CFP ranking from the Tuesday before week 13. Until then we use the latest CFP rankings.
How the projections work
Each remaining game's win chance comes from the gap between the two teams' Receipts Rankings scores (through 2026-11-01), plus home field. Both were fit to every FBS game played after late October in the 2021–2025 seasons. Ties our data can't break are settled at random in the simulations.