Mountain West football standings and title game race, 2026
The Mountain West Championship Game matches the top 2 teams in the conference standings.
10 of 10 teams can still reach the title game.
- In if they win out: New Mexico, Wyoming and UNLV
- Alive but need help: North Dakota State, Air Force, Nevada, San José State, Hawai'i, Northern Illinois and UTEP
18 conference games left. Based on every possible result of those games.
Standings and projected finish
Ordered by current conference record, with tiebreakers. How ties are broken
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Projected finish | Title game chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico7-1 overall · Projected finish: 1st (avg 1.4) | 4-0 | 7-1 | 1stavg 1.4 · 7.1-0.9 conf | 91% |
| 2 | Wyoming5-3 overall · Projected finish: 2nd (avg 3.1) | 4-1 | 5-3 | 2ndavg 3.1 · 5.1-2.9 conf | 39% |
| 3 | UNLV5-3 overall · Projected finish: 3rd (avg 3.4) | 3-1 | 5-3 | 3rdavg 3.4 · 5.1-2.9 conf | 36% |
| 4 | North Dakota StateWhat it takes: Win out, plus 2 losses by New Mexico.7-2 overall · Projected finish: 7th (avg 6.4) | 4-2 | 7-2 | 7thavg 6.4 · 4.1-4.9 conf | <1% |
| 5 | Air ForceWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.6-2 overall · Projected finish: 4th (avg 3.6) | 3-2 | 6-2 | 4thavg 3.6 · 4.8-3.2 conf | 23% |
| 6 | NevadaWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.3-5 overall · Projected finish: 6th (avg 6.1) | 2-2 | 3-5 | 6thavg 6.1 · 3.7-4.3 conf | 4% |
| 7 | San José StateWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.4-5 overall · Projected finish: 5th (avg 5.2) | 2-3 | 4-5 | 5thavg 5.2 · 4.5-4.5 conf | 7% |
| 8 | Hawai'iWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.2-6 overall · Projected finish: 8th (avg 7.7) | 1-4 | 2-6 | 8thavg 7.7 · 2.9-5.1 conf | <1% |
| 9 | Northern IllinoisTied with UTEP. The next step (Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI, SportSource)) uses data we don't have, so these teams are listed alphabetically.What it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.0-8 overall · Projected finish: 9th (avg 8.9) | 0-4 | 0-8 | 9thavg 8.9 · 2.2-5.8 conf | <1% |
| 10 | UTEPWhat it takes: Win out and several results to go its way.1-7 overall · Projected finish: 10th (avg 9.3) | 0-4 | 1-7 | 10thavg 9.3 · 1.4-6.6 conf | <1% |
“In if they win out” means winning every remaining conference game guarantees a spot on record alone. “What it takes” is the simplest set of other results that, along with winning out, guarantees a spot without needing a tiebreaker. Projected finish and title game chance are based on the numbers: we played out the rest of the season 10,000 times, with each game's win chance from the Receipts Rankings model, including home field. Projected finish ranks teams by their average place across those seasons (1st has the best average).
How the standings moved, week by week
Each team's conference place after each week with Mountain West games.
Remaining conference games
Strength of schedule here is the combined current record of the conference opponents each team still plays. 1 is the toughest stretch.
| Team | Still to play | Strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 1Opponents 19-13 | |
| UNLV |
| 2Opponents 19-14 |
| San José State |
| 3Opponents 18-15 |
| Wyoming |
| 4Opponents 13-11 |
| Air Force |
| 5Opponents 12-13 |
| Northern Illinois |
| 6Opponents 15-19 |
| Hawai'i |
| 7Opponents 11-14 |
| Nevada |
| 8Opponents 14-18 |
| UTEP |
| 9Opponents 13-19 |
| North Dakota State |
| 10Opponents 6-19 |
How ties are broken
We use the official Mountain West procedure (Mountain West Football Championship Tiebreaking Procedures, 2026 (themw.com)).
Two teams tied
- CFP-ranked team immunity: the highest CFP-ranked tied team that wins its finale gets the spot
- Head-to-head result between the tied teams
- Highest CFP-ranked tied team that won its final regular-season game
- Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI, SportSource)
- Overall winning percentage (one FCS win max)
- Record vs. the next highest-placed conference team or tied group
- Win percentage vs. common conference opponents
- Coin toss
Three or more teams tied
- CFP-ranked team immunity: the highest CFP-ranked tied team that wins its finale gets the spot
- Record in games among the tied teams; if not all played, a team that beat or lost to all others is removed
- Highest CFP-ranked tied team that won its final regular-season game
- Composite of computer rankings (Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI, SportSource)
- Overall winning percentage (one FCS win max)
- Record vs. the next highest-placed conference team or tied group
- Win percentage vs. common conference opponents
- Coin toss
Once a step lifts a team out of a tie, it takes the spot and the remaining teams start over. When a group of common opponents is tied in the standings, we use each team's record against that group as a whole.
CFP rankings used: the latest committee top 25 (released week 10). It updates when a new ranking comes out. Steps that depend on a final game wait until that game is played.
CFP rankings: the Mountain West uses the ranking released Nov. 24. Until then we use the latest CFP rankings, which update each week.
If no ranked tied team wins its finale, the Mountain West uses a composite of computer rankings we don't have, so we stop there.
How the projections work
Each remaining game's win chance comes from the gap between the two teams' Receipts Rankings scores (through 2026-11-01), plus home field. Both were fit to every FBS game played after late October in the 2021–2025 seasons. Ties our data can't break are settled at random in the simulations.