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  1. College Football
  2. ›Conference races
  3. ›Mountain West
  4. ›The road left

Mountain West title race: the road left, 2026

Remaining conference schedules for the Mountain West title race, with remaining strength of schedule and each game's win chance from the same projections as the standings page.

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Remaining conference games

Toughest road left: UNLV, whose remaining conference opponents are 16-12.

Standings and title game race

Title-race contenders are the top four in the conference standings (including ties at that cutoff), plus any other team within one conference game of first place. Those teams are shown as cards; the rest of the conference is listed below. Estimated difficulty is for the same average-FBS team against only the conference games still to play, using current opponent strength and future venues. Ranks compare teams within this conference; 1 is toughest. Opponents' records are context, not the formula. Unranked means insufficient coverage or no remaining games. Individual game win chances below remain the existing race projections for the actual teams, not the common SOS reference team.

Title-race contenders

#1 Mountain West

New Mexico

Conf 5-0 · Overall 8-1

93%

title game chance

Still to play

  • Wk 11 vs UNLV · 79% win chance
  • Wk 12 at Wyoming · 79% win chance
  • Wk 13 vs Air Force · 73% win chance

Opponents' record

18-9

Toughest road rank

6th of 10

Difficulty 34.0%

#2 Mountain West

Wyoming

Conf 5-1 · Overall 6-3

87%

title game chance

Still to play

  • Wk 11 at UTEP · 61% win chance
  • Wk 12 vs New Mexico · 21% win chance

Opponents' record

9-9

Toughest road rank

4th of 10

Difficulty 40.9%

#3 Mountain West

North Dakota State

Conf 4-2 · Overall 7-2

<1%

title game chance

Still to play

  • Wk 11 at Hawai'i · 5% win chance
  • Wk 12 vs Northern Illinois · 5% win chance
  • Wk 13 at San José State · 5% win chance

Opponents' record

8-20

Toughest road rank

10th of 10

Difficulty 25.1%

#4 Mountain West

Air Force

Conf 3-2 · Overall 7-2

11%

title game chance

Still to play

  • Wk 11 vs San José State · 71% win chance
  • Wk 12 vs UTEP · 86% win chance
  • Wk 13 at New Mexico · 27% win chance

Opponents' record

14-14

Toughest road rank

5th of 10

Difficulty 36.1%

Rest of the conference

TeamStill to playStrength of schedule
UNLV#5 · Conf 3-2
  • Wk 11 at New Mexico · 21% win chance
  • Wk 12 at San José State · 52% win chance
  • Wk 13 vs Nevada · 69% win chance
1Difficulty 47.0%Opponents 16-12
San José State#6 · Conf 3-3
  • Wk 11 at Air Force · 29% win chance
  • Wk 12 vs UNLV · 48% win chance
  • Wk 13 vs North Dakota State · 95% win chance
3Difficulty 44.2%Opponents 19-8
Nevada#7 · Conf 2-3
  • Wk 11 at Northern Illinois · 60% win chance
  • Wk 12 vs Hawai'i · 63% win chance
  • Wk 13 at UNLV · 31% win chance
9Difficulty 26.4%Opponents 8-19
Hawai'i#8 · Conf 2-4
  • Wk 11 vs North Dakota State · 95% win chance
  • Wk 12 at Nevada · 37% win chance
2Difficulty 45.6%Opponents 10-8
Northern Illinois#9 · Conf 0-5
  • Wk 11 vs Nevada · 40% win chance
  • Wk 12 at North Dakota State · 95% win chance
  • Wk 13 vs UTEP · 57% win chance
7Difficulty 33.0%Opponents 11-16
UTEP#10 · Conf 0-5
  • Wk 11 vs Wyoming · 39% win chance
  • Wk 12 at Air Force · 14% win chance
  • Wk 13 at Northern Illinois · 43% win chance
8Difficulty 30.0%Opponents 13-14
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